Yelling ‘FIRE’ in the Theater, part 1
The next time, my family will stay
by James O’Byrne, Staff Writer, The Times-Picayune
Wednesday September 03, 2008, 11:55 AM
Heavy traffic lines Interstate 10 eastbound as motorist make their way out of the path of Hurricane Gustav on Sunday, Aug. 31, 2008 in Mobile, Ala. Alabama. I’m sure that Gov. Bobby Jindal, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, Mayor Ray Nagin, Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard and all the other public officials mean well. I’m sure they thought it was a good idea to panic people into leaving. I’m sure they believe it’s in the public’s best interest to stay away while they clean up.
But the evacuation of the metro area in advance of Gustav, and the subsequent policies regarding re-entry, will guarantee that in the next major storm to strike the region — which may occur in a matter of days or weeks — many more people will be at risk. The slightest bit of vision, combined with an open ear to the anger and frustration of this hurricane-weary citizenry, would make the government officials responsible realize that they helped to make this happen.
Under Louisiana law, it is still legally not possible to forcibly remove people from their property and make them leave in advance of an approaching storm. So every evacuation becomes an implicit contract between the officials and the public. You tell us the truth, and the risks as the scientists and forecasters see it. We’ll try to make good decisions for the sake of our families.
When that contract is broken, as I believe it was in the case of Gustav, then the tradeoff is that fewer people leave the next time. Here’s three rules that public officials must follow if they want people to evacuate in significant numbers again:
Rule No. 1: Don’t exaggerate and force a panic. It is not supposed to be the business of public officials to panic people with disinformation, misinformation, or downright lies. To call Gustav “the mother of all storms” 900 miles wide, as Mayor Nagin did, was demonstrably untrue, and an insult to Katrina and all who suffered through that storm. Gustav had hurricane force winds extending 50 miles from its center. Katrina, by comparison, had hurricane force winds extending 105 miles from the center. It was 50 percent more powerful, and carved a path of destruction more than twice as wide as Gustav.
Mayor Nagin on Saturday night, while foreshadowing his plan to call for a mandatory evacuation on Sunday, proclaimed that everyone should “leave now.” It worked, but how shocking was it that Interstate 10 east and Interstate 59 became complete gridlock, and a place of suffering for people trying to escape the storm? At the time Nagin made his breathless proclamation, the National Hurricane Center had already issued an advisory describing how forces of shear and dry air were inhibiting Gustav’s strength, and how all of the computer models — all of them — were showing the storm moving west of New Orleans.
To one degree or another, this pattern repeated itself across the metro area. Public officials succeeded in panicking the populace into fleeing — this time. But such a tack will not succeed as well the next. There are those who will say that people must heed the warning to leave, because even though Gustav missed New Orleans, the next one might not. It could be so much worse the next time, they argue. That may be true.
But the one commodity that is absolutely essential in communication between officialdom and its populace in times of crisis is credibility. It was cast aside this time in favor of hyperbole and exaggeration calculated to induce panic. The fact that it worked so well this time almost guarantees that the next time it won’t.
Rule No. 2: Don’t respond to people’s criticisms and complaints about how things went by telling them this is how it’s supposed to be. Sixteen hours to Birmingham, 23 hours to Tuscaloosa, 14 hours to Pensacola. In many cases, these horrific journeys were made with infants and the elderly, trapped on the interstate, blocked from exiting for hours and hours, with no hope of food, gas or bathroom facilities. Yet when public officials, standing in their air-conditioned Emergency Operations Centers, were questioned about what went wrong, they responded that everything worked well, and this is how it’s supposed to be.
Back to that contract. If people don’t actually have to leave, and they are telling their public officials that this evacuation did not work well, the correct response to that message is not, “You’re wrong, it did.” Because if there is no hope of improvement in the time it takes to get out of harm’s way, then the next time many thousands won’t go.
Rule No. 3: You have to let people return to their property as soon as humanly possible. Yes, I know that in many cases, there is still some modicum of danger on the streets, what with tree limbs and power poles and all manner of difficulties, just as it’s dangerous to live here in the first place, dangerous to evacuate, dangerous to return on highways clogged with angry and frustrated citizens.
News flash: We know it’s dangerous to live here. We accept the possibility of no gas, no power, no readily available food. We’re Katrina survivors. We’ll figure it out.
But if the enduring image of Gustav is a U.S. soldier with an M-16 denying a citizen the right to return to his home, then you can pretty much write off the next “mandatory” evacuation. Leaving your home in advance of a storm is an extraordinarily stressful, difficult, traumatic and expensive proposition. The one thing that must be honored is that people must be allowed to return to their homes as soon as humanly possible.
As a journalist, I spent the past two days driving around reporting on the storm. And by Tuesday afternoon, this city was as safe as it needed to be. Indeed, all those tree branches and debris would be picked up and stacked neatly on the curb by lunchtime on Wednesday if people had been allowed to come home.
I fully appreciate the risks of letting my family stay. But I have to weigh that risk against the alternate risks, of getting trapped in an endless evacuation traffic jam, of being stranded on a highway far from help, of not being able to return in a timely manner, to secure our property and come back to as much of a normal life as possible.
New Orleans is my home. I love it, and I choose to keep living here. But if you are a public official who wants me to leave for the next storm, then you have to hear what I am telling you. It’s time to rewrite the contract.
This aricle is reposted from NOLA.COM because I wanted you to read it before it gets pulled. - LD
September 4th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
I’m confused about the “pulling” everyone keeps talking about because the link i posted yesterday morning has been active the whole time. Did they just take it off the homepage maybe? http://blog.nola.com/editorials/2008/09/next_time_we_wont_leave.html
Anyway, I thought it kicked ass and summed up exactly how I felt.
September 4th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
I feel that, either way, the officials are screwed. Had they not done all of the above and there had been numerous deaths and major property losses due to Gustav, they would have been more than verbally tarred and feathered. Now that they did play Chicken Little and had people evacuate, they are getting yelled at.
Nagin is an idiot - don’t listen to anything he says - and there are people who stayed behind and fared just fine. The last time, thousands drowned. When are we going to come to terms with the fact that there is no predicting the future when it comes to hurricanes and floods, and that situations like this, even when “prepared,” will always be gigantic rodeos of clusterfucks? We, i.e humans, are not invincible.
September 4th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Maitri, thank you for posting your comment.
also, don’t forget it was the National Weather God’s - who on Saturday evening said that Gustav was going to build up to a 4 or 5 cat. 150 miles away. what did eveyone expect the officials to do… nothing??? tell the people to chill and lets wait till it’s 50 miles away to decide to leave or not??
*and for the record, this isn’t a political opinion. as i gag at the thought of most of our officials.
losing everything in a disaster will change you forever.
September 4th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
I’m in agreement with this editorial except for one small (really, not too small) thing.
I believe that people like my wife and I, who have kids, are morally obligated to leave when there is a threat like this — even an iffy one. When you have kids the decision is pretty much made for you.
However, it would ne nice not to be lied to, and even nicer to be able to come home immediately after the threat has passed.
An evacuation, the way I understand it, is the act of removing a large group of people from the path of a coming danger. It’s not about locking people out of their homes after the danger has passed.
We are not children. We are seasoned veterans. We know how to deal with power outages, water outages, lack of grocery stores, lack of everything. This is minor league stuff when you’ve lived through the 2005 ringer.
http://louismaistros.livejournal.com/
September 5th, 2008 at 12:24 am
Well, I actually gave Ray-Ray a pat on the back for getting folks out. Problem here is that he far overstated the threat which is naturally going to stay in peoples minds next time around. Then, after the non-event passed over the city, we’re told to stay away for another week while officials “inspect” damaged areas to see what needs to be done. Hmmm, a bare minimum crew criss-crossing the city looking for problems. Here’s a thought. Let everyone back in and they can call and tell you where the problems are! Ah, but then the city workers don’t get that hefty overtime check! I’m with Maitri though, damned if they did and damned if they didn’t.
A few items of note from the rumour-mill. If anyone can confirm these, it would be appreciated.
La Donna tells me that FEMA will only pay for hotel stays only from the time you apply for relief, and that FEMA would pay the hotels directly for your stay. This means that those of you who waited until the storm passed, or until you returned to apply are S.O.L for whatever bills you accrued on your evac.
Also, there is report of a Louisiana State Senator or Congressman chiding evacuees for expecting FEMA to foot the hotel bills. He reportedly said that evacuees had a choice of hotels or shelters and if they decided against the latter then the Feds should not be held accountable for the bills of the former. I can’t find this on Google.
Last Item: The NOPD was hanging out in Jefferson Parish on I-10 checking ID’s before letting anyone in to New Orleans. Anyone trying to cross the GNO twin spans was turned away by these thugs. JP Sheriff Newell Normand was on the scene in no time. It seems these idiots were not informed that Ray Nagin decided to disband checkpoints early and allow all residents to return. No one has been able to explain what the NOPD was doing in Jefferson Parish.
Well, I know what they were doing. They were being assholes. Instead of putting the checkpoint at the City Park exit, where people could turn around under the bridge, they sat at the parish line and simply caused a massive traffic jam. They get paid for working, and they don’t have to check any ID’s because traffic isn’t moving. According to sources, Normand met with Orleans Councilman Arnie Fielkow on the side of the interstate and got everything cleared up, then disbanded the checkpoints in Jefferson Parish.
September 5th, 2008 at 6:40 am
I’m curious why a power outage requires y’all to remain out of the city anyway. We lost power up here (Jackson, MS) for over 2 weeks after Katrina and over a week after the 5 tornados that hit us this spring, but nobody ever told us to leave town until it was back up. If it’s safe enough to stay in town when the power goes out, why is it not safe to return to town when the power is out? We had the same problems of no gas, no stores, live power lines down, trees through houses, that sort of thing, but here we stayed and managed to muddle through.
BTW, do you realize that we have several thousand LA evacuees still stuck in MS because of no money to get home on or disabled vehicles? The reports yesterday said they can’t return the bussed evacuees home until the Mayor lifts the curfew. I have no idea what that’s all about (something legal, no doubt) but meanwhile, they’re stuck and the busses are needed for whatever their usual service is. I can’t imagine what will happen when they do send them home and don’t have the use of school busses to get them there.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Delta, the power outage excuse is bullshit, plain and simple. It’s a move to get a company who has a Cayman Islands tax shelter more federal disaster funding. Supposedly NOLA is an”island” and some of the T-P reported official quotes claim power cannot be brought in from the east. I guess Entergy Mississippi is as cooperative as the Mississippi Highway Patrol. It’s really disgusting what is being sold to us by our “leaders”.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4479
As of September 2nd, it was reported that “Entergy’s Waterford 3 nuclear plant shut Sunday night; River Bend nuclear plant powered down to 75 percent due to lower electricity demand.”
September 5th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
You might want to also check out my Sunday blog on the same subject, which comes to an opposite conclusion from my esteemed colleague:
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/08/nagins_mother_of_all_storms.html
If he was shown the same storm surge model map I was shown today, his words were too weak. I would have borrowed a line that former Gov. Kathleen Blanco used in the run-up to Hurricane Rita’s landfall: If you don’t plan on leaving, please write your Social Security number on your arm in indelible ink so we can identify your body.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
While I posted the article in question to help raise questions about how this was handled, let me say clearly that I think erring on the side of caution is a wise choice, especially considering how dependent our safety is on the Army Corps of Engineers.
I do however, take issue with having a hysterical mayor on the radio crying about the Storm of the Century being 900 miles wide when that simply NEVER HAPPENED. I don’t need to be frightened in to having common sense, especially by such an award winning idiot.
I also am not fond of Warren Riley announcing that if I stay in town and go out of my house I “will be arrested.” Not detained or asked for ID or questioned, mind you.
ARRESTED.
This serves as a defacto order to all NOPD to arrest anyone & everyone without probable cause, dialouge, etc. It also means that any questioning of this treatment constitutes Resisting Arrest, and carries penalties and a permanent criminal record for say, taking some water to the old lady next door.
Sorry, Warren, but that’s not only fucking wrong, it’s unconstitutional. We have enough problems with the thug mentality of our local cops without a license to arrest everybody they see. Just look at the ‘checkpoint’ fiasco, stopping people on the parish line like a Smokey and the Bandit movie, even though it’s in the middle of a fucking freeway, with nowhere to turn around.
Then there’s the No Return bullshit. What was I supposed to do Out There with no money or gas? My house is fine, the power is on, and I’m one of those people who restores houses and stuff. Maybe if I strap an award top the hood of the truck….
Evacuating those who need it is great. Well done. Lying to us about the size of the storm makes Clarence R. Nagin look more like chicken little, but that’s fine, too. Arresting me for taking care of myself and not trusting City Hall is both wrong & illegal. Keeping me from my home is criminal.
Listening to C. Ray Nagin pat himnself on the back and talk about what a great job he did, when THERE ARE STILL PEOPLE OUT THERE FROM KATRINA, well, I got sick in a bag, and I’m sending it to City Hall, labeled Nagin’s Award.
As for the million some odd folks who spent many hours cooking in the heat on the side of a freeway with no water or bathrooms for miles and miles, and those who were evacuated by the city and still can’t get home, my heart goes out to you. I will not do this again.